On March 15, the Taiwan Institute for International Strategy and the Taiwan Institute for International Studies released a poll on “Ukrainian War and Taiwan Strait Security”. It can be seen from the latest poll figures that peaceful coexistence is still the main theme of cross-strait relations. As high as 77.3% of Taiwanese people hope to have “peaceful exchanges” with the mainland, and only 16.1% of the people support the DPP’s “anti-China protection against Taiwan”. It is obvious that the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has made the people of Taiwan feel the horror of war. More than 60% of the people do not agree with the statement “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow”, and more than 60% of the people do not think that the Russian-Ukrainian war will speed up the mainland’s desire to unify Taiwan. “The new system for reserving soldiers is called up.
Over 60% of Taiwanese people disagree with the statement “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow”
The polls conducted before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, especially the poll conducted by Taiwan’s “Taiwan Daily” in January, received the most attention. More than 30% of the people supported “Taiwan independence”. doubled. However, in this poll by the Taiwan Institute of International Strategy and the Taiwan Institute of International Studies, the ratio of support for the DPP’s “anti-China protection against Taiwan” has dropped to 16.1%. It can be seen that after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Taiwanese people have already understood the horror of war. , no longer support the DPP’s reckless and aggressive cross-strait policy.
The Russian-Ukrainian war continues to rage, and the hypothesis of “Today’s Ukraine, Tomorrow’s Taiwan” has sparked heated discussions online. According to the “Ukrainian War and Taiwan Strait Security” poll, 61.6% of the public did not agree with this statement, and 26.1% agreed, indicating that the majority of the public did not put the tensions of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the two Taiwan Strait crisis.
The mainland will not accelerate the pace of reunification due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
In addition to the increase in the proportion of hope that the two sides of the strait can live in peace, do you think that the cross-strait military conflict that may occur between the two sides of the strait will cause the Chinese mainland to speed up the pace of reunification of Taiwan due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine? , while 25.5% think it will speed up. That is to say, as many as 60% of the Taiwanese people believe that the mainland will not accelerate the pace of reunification with Taiwan because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
As for cross-strait conflict, more than half (56.2%) of Taiwanese people believe that Taiwan is not capable of resisting the mainland’s military action alone, and only 34.7% think it can.
Since Taiwan cannot stand alone against the offensive of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, the United States has promised Taiwan that “the relationship between the United States and Taiwan is as firm as a rock”. Regarding whether the United States will send troops to assist Taiwan in the event of a cross-strait conflict, 42.7% of Taiwanese people believe that the United States will send troops to assist. And 47.3% think no, the difference between the two ratios is not big, which shows that people have different attitudes towards the US sending troops to assist, and they also do not have much confidence in the US helping to defend Taiwan.
This point can also be seen from the four ways in which the United States may assist Taiwan. The public believes that the United States will “provide weapons and equipment” (61.5%), followed by “public solidarity” (48.5%) and “intelligence support”. (44.1%), while the lowest proportion was “to send troops to support” (26.1%). It can be seen from the re-election of this question that US President Biden claimed that he would not send troops to support the war in Ukraine, and had a psychological reaction to the Taiwanese people. Only 60% of the people believed that the United States would only use weapons to support Taiwan and would not send troops. Help Taiwan fight the war.
There is no market for the DPP to engage in “anti-China Taiwan”
From the people’s belief that the mainland will not speed up the pace of reunification because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, to the lack of confidence in the United States to help defend Taiwan, it can be seen that the people of Taiwan are full of contradictions in the face of changes in the international situation. The biggest contradiction among them is the belief that Taiwan can’t beat the mainland, but there is a fairly high percentage of support for the reform of the conscription system and the “hardest teaching”.
Recently, Taiwan’s military service calling system has also become the focus of everyone’s attention. For the new system of reservists called “the hardest in history”, that is to say, the new system has been extended from the original 5 to 7 days to 14 days. It has already been implemented, and 70.4% of the people expressed support for this change in the vocation system, while 19.1% expressed disapproval.
As for the extension of the issue of “the extension of the compulsory service period of the Taiwan military”, nearly 70% (69.6%) of the people also expressed support, and 21.0% expressed disapproval. On the whole, the majority of the people agree with the current implementation and discussion of the conscription system for the Taiwan military.
From the latest polls, it can be seen that there is no winner in the cross-strait conflict. What the Taiwanese people really want is “peaceful exchanges” between the two sides of the strait. It is increasingly unpopular with the people of Taiwan. If there is a war between the two sides of the strait because of “Taiwan independence”, it will be spurned by the people. This should be the biggest significance of this poll.
