Although in 2020, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the Chinese mobile phone market has gradually eased, under the combined action of multiple internal and external factors, the development of the Chinese mobile phone market in the upcoming 2021 will be full of more uncertainties .
It is predicted that thanks to a better market environment under stable epidemic prevention and control, China’s smartphone shipments in 2021 are expected to increase by 4.6% year-on-year, with a market capacity of approximately 340 million units.
It is estimated that by 2022, more than 50% of the 5G mobile phone products of mainstream mobile phone manufacturers will span three or more chip platforms to reduce risks and ensure stable supply.
As 5G continues to penetrate the Chinese market, it is estimated that by 2021, 40% of mobile phone users across the country will switch to 5G mobile phones, of which more than 70% will exist in T1-T3 cities.
The following are 10 predictions for the Chinese smartphone market in 2021:
1. The market is back to normal
Thanks to a better market environment under stable epidemic prevention and control, China’s smartphone shipments in 2021 are expected to increase by 4.6% year-on-year, with a market capacity of approximately 340 million units.
2. Continuous supply chain instability
Potential changes in the market structure have stimulated a new round of market competition and further extended to the upstream supply level. The entire supply chain, especially the competition on the chip side, will become increasingly fierce. “Stock-out” will become the key word of the industry in 2021, and the unstable situation on the supply chain will continue for about 50% of the time in 2021.
3. Multi-chip platform introduction
By 2022, more than 50% of mainstream mobile phone manufacturers’ 5G mobile phone products will span three or more chip platforms to reduce risks and ensure stable supply.
4.5G mobile phone retention rate exceeds 40%
As 5G continues to penetrate the Chinese market, it is estimated that by 2021, 40% of mobile phone users across the country will switch to 5G mobile phones, of which more than 70% will exist in T1-T3 cities.
5. The average unit price declines
Limited by the external environment, the price segment pattern of China’s Android market will change to some extent in the short term. The capacity of the high-end market will be reduced to a certain extent, while competition for mainstream or low-end products will intensify. It is expected that the overall average unit price of the Chinese market will drop by 0.9% in 2021.
6. Video competition shifts from “quantity” to “quality”
Video is still one of the main tracks for mobile phone hardware upgrades, but the focus of the upgrade will shift from the number of cameras to quality. It is estimated that by 2021, the average number of cameras in Chinese mobile phones will not exceed 4.3. In addition to the main camera, telephoto, wide-angle and other commonly used sub-cameras will adopt more sensors with larger unit pixel area and higher number of pixels, or better quality lens groups to improve the image quality in multiple scenes.
7. Optimistic development of folding screens
To meet the increasingly differentiated demands of high-end users, more folding screen products will enter the market one after another, and the market capacity will gradually increase. It is estimated that by 2023, China’s shipments of folding screen products will exceed 1 million units.
8. High refresh rate becomes mainstream
The proportion of models that support high refresh rate screens (90Hz and above) will rise to more than 80% in 2022, becoming the mainstream of the market. Therefore, the adaptation and optimization of high refresh rate and variable refresh rate screens at the system and software application level will continue to be a more important topic.
9. “Quick charge” ecology is beginning to take shape
Hundred-watt wired charging and high-power wireless charging will accelerate penetration. With the penetration of mobile office concepts, and more terminal devices that support wireless charging, accelerate their entry into the market, and the establishment of a charging ecosystem will be on the agenda. Fast-charge chargers and wireless chargers that support multiple protocols and are more portable will enter the mobile phone channel faster and occupy a place in the market.
10. It’s time to advance cloud storage
Mobile cloud services represented by cloud storage will usher in greater demand and opportunities. Although the epidemic has eased, the trend of cautious consumption will continue. Therefore, under the premise of controlling terminal prices, mobile phones in mainstream price segments have been difficult to squeeze out the cost and provide a substantial amount of higher storage space. At the same time, the continuous development of 5G networks will also bring better development of cloud services on mobile phones space.