The COVID-19 epidemic is raging around the world. At present, vaccines have been successfully developed and are being launched. When will the world be able to control the COVID-19 epidemic? Many experts gave a prediction.
<strong>Ma Jing, Professor of Harvard Medical School: The US epidemic control may be by the end of the year, and the global epidemic control in two years is not optimistic</strong>
In January 2021, Ma Jing, chairman and secretary-general of the China-US Health Summit and professor at Harvard Medical School, said in an interview with Phoenix.com: The promotion of vaccines has its stages. In the United States, 2021 will probably be June or July. There is a large amount of promotion, and it is hoped that the epidemic can be controlled by vaccines before the end of the year. However, vaccines alone are still not optimistic, unless he vaccinates 60 to 70% of the people to form a state of herd immunity.
But I want to emphasize that a recent poll in the United States mentioned that about 30% of people are unwilling to get vaccinated, and they are determined not to get vaccinated. At least so far, there are some surveys of public opinion and they are still being tracked. Some people in the United States are also very disgusted and unacceptable not only for the COVID-19 vaccine, but also for other child vaccinations, so this free country also has certain flaws. In short, I think having a vaccine is one aspect, but other prevention and control measures should not be taken lightly. Continue to wear a mask, continue to wash your hands, and continue to keep your distance.
The United States promises that by the end of 2021, all Americans will be able to get free vaccines, but this does not mean that it is for the whole world. For example, the conditions in Africa are very simple, and it is very difficult for them to apply cold chain vaccines at minus 60 or 70 degrees. Then he may need to use inactivated vaccines instead of transportation under such harsh conditions. All in all, wait until 60 to 70% of the people in the world can be vaccinated. I am really not optimistic that the epidemic will be controlled in the past two years. Therefore, the world has joined forces to prevent and control it. We still have to find innovative ways.
<strong>Bill Gates: The global pandemic may not end until at least the end of 2021</strong>
In September 2020, the editor-in-chief of The Economist interviewed Mr. Bill Gates. He admitted that the global pandemic would not end until at least the end of 2021. After 2021, some poor and backward countries or a very small number of developed countries will still have low-level cases.
Most of the deaths caused by the virus were not caused by the Covid-19 virus, but by the chaos of the medical service and public health system, coupled with further pressure from social factors and economic distress. For example, some cancer patients were not treated and diagnosed in time due to the epidemic, and some patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were unable to obtain necessary medicines and worsened. Even the death toll from malaria and AIDS continues to rise. In the next 2-3 years, hunger will spread and the dropout rate will drop due to reduced agricultural production.
The poverty and unemployment after the epidemic may last longer than the COVID-19 virus, and at least there will be changes in the global society and demographics in the next ten years.
<strong>Zhong Nanshan: How is the global epidemic going? Depends on two things</strong>
On April 10, 2020, Academician Zhong Nanshan talked with South Korean epidemic prevention expert Li Zhongqiu on CCTV News to give a judgment on the global epidemic situation. Academician Zhong believes that the trend of the global epidemic depends on two aspects: the first is the law of the disease itself. Now the COVID-19 virus has been very adapted to survive in the human body, so its spread is relatively large, and its fatality rate is similar. It is more than 20 times higher than the flu, so this issue deserves attention. At present, judging from the mutation law of the virus, general respiratory diseases will decrease in summer.
On the other hand, what is more important is the intervention situation. One is disease intervention. Due to the relatively high fatality rate of COVID-19, we should consider the rapid development of vaccines instead of relying on the majority of people to obtain “herd immunity”. This method is not feasible, and the cost and sacrifice are too great. There is also the importance of “distance”. Whether it is “closing the city” or staying at home, keeping a distance between people is an important way to reduce mutual infection.