Will there be another outbreak of COVID-19? How to promote the resumption of production in an orderly manner? Is it feasible to resume classes now? How contagious are asymptomatic people? On the afternoon of the 12th, Zhong Nanshan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, gave answers one by one at the 75th Epidemic Prevention and Control Press Conference (Interview on Epidemic Prevention and Control) in Guangzhou.
Entry inspection is very necessary
In order to prevent and control the import of foreign epidemic situations, cities such as Guangzhou are taking strict prevention and control measures such as mandatory entry inspection and 14-day centralized quarantine to take on the important task of “guarding the country”. In this regard, Zhong Nanshan said that our comprehensive coverage of nucleic acid detection by overseas personnel is actually related to the current epidemic situation in the world.
He said that China is basically in a state of control, but the epidemic situation abroad is at a stage of increasing climb. In this case, this contrast will definitely cause imported cases. If it is not found or not at all, it must be strange. Without nucleic acid detection, it is difficult to prevent foreign imports. Therefore, strict prevention and control measures such as mandatory inspection and 14-day centralized isolation adopted by cities such as Guangzhou are very much needed and correct.
The occurrence of cases related to imported cases abroad does not mean a rebound
Recently, there have been many related cases of imported cases in Guangzhou. Does this indicate that the Guangzhou epidemic has rebounded? “The outbreak of a large group is a rebound.” Zhong Nanshan said that there is no limit to infectious diseases, as long as they are foreign, there will definitely be infections. The measures taken by Guangzhou are relatively early. Early detection and early isolation are all good things. I do n’t think it is a rebound, but the result of early detection in Guangzhou.
Only after good prevention and control can we resume production
Zhong Nanshan said that resuming work, resuming production and returning to school means increased contact, which will bring higher risks. Only after good prevention and control can the work be resumed and resumed production, otherwise, if there is a problem, it is meaningless to resume production.
“How to deal with the relationship between resumption of production and prevention and control is very difficult, we must be very cautious, step by step. In fact, it is a very test of our leadership ability, organizational ability, administrative ability, test our medical prevention level.” Zhong Nanshan said, do not Fearing that one or a few cases will go back, I think we must keep going. It is not surprising that individual infections occur, what is done is to minimize the possibility of infection.
At present, we are looking for answers in practices that have never been carried out. We have done a good job in the early stage, and we have prevented and controlled and isolated from the beginning of the community.
Zhong Nanshan pointed out that even if the person who came to the city returned to the city, even if it was a green code, it should be tested, because there may be asymptomatic people. The proportion of human antibodies positive in Hubei may be higher than in other provinces.
Do two prerequisites to resume classes
Zhong Nanshan said that the core issue of resuming classes is the distance between students. Resuming classes means staying close together. There are two prerequisites for resuming the class. One is that the students who participated in the class have not been infected or have been cured after infection (multiple nucleic acid tests are negative), and the other is that the distance of the students in the class must be considered. The students in the classroom should adjust the distance appropriately. These two premises are done, and I think it can be resumed. In addition, students’ personal habits are very important. Don’t get together after school, pay attention to personal hygiene, and parents should pay attention to protection.
He believes that the epidemic situation of foreign students, especially in some developing countries, is still difficult to estimate, and the level of detection and statistics is not very high. Under such circumstances, international students and their close contacts must pass our routine tests, and there is no problem to start school.
Asymptomatic infections are contagious, but not very threatening
Zhong Nanshan pointed out that we must first have an accurate understanding of asymptomatic patients. In infectious diseases, some symptoms appear after infection, and some do not. No symptoms appear after infection, this situation should be very careful, because many domestic and foreign data prove that the infected people who do not have symptoms are infectious.
Judging from the current observation rules, asymptomatic infected people will usually have symptoms after 3-5 days. The facts also confirm that some people have no symptoms but are indeed infected. This is the so-called asymptomatic infection, and most of these people are infectious.
Zhong Nanshan said that asymptomatic infections are not unique to the later development of the COVID-19 virus, and such people have always existed. Like the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan, more than 1,000 people are infected, many of whom are asymptomatic. At present, when there are many imported cases abroad, we are more urged to pay attention to this group.
He pointed out that because of the great disparity in the epidemic situation at home and abroad, we must strictly prevent imported cases. Early cases of rising infections are highly contagious, and they may not necessarily show symptoms. This is an infectious disease. Don’t expect the epidemic to disappear completely. This is the law of infectious diseases. As long as it can be controlled to a minimum, it does not affect the resumption of work and resume production.
“I don’t think that asymptomatic infected people are a great threat, but we didn’t pay attention to it before, and now we are actively investigating.” Zhong Nanshan said that the current method of active investigation is enough, mainly to close contact with newly infected cases Therefore, people from the epidemic area and their close contacts should be actively investigated. However, there is no need to conduct a comprehensive screening throughout Guangzhou. After all, the so-called asymptomatic infections are few.
The epidemic will change people’s awareness of protection
Zhong Nanshan said that after this epidemic, I think that the concepts of all countries in the world will change accordingly, and people will consciously develop a sense of protection. For China, the largest epidemic prevention and control experience is that the group prevention and control is sinking into the community. After the outbreak, the community’s spontaneous prevention and control system develops a set of mature means is very necessary.
But this set of measures is not lengthy and tedious, and it will not restrict the free movement of residents, nor does it mean that masks must be worn all the time. The most important thing is that as the epidemic goes by, people should develop good hygiene habits, do not eat game, do not speak loudly in public places, wash hands frequently, etc.
Human intervention determines whether COVID-19 will have a second outbreak
Zhong Nanshan said that no expert can predict in advance. Because we know that it is highly contagious and has a high case fatality rate. The COVID-19 vaccine is being developed every day and every day in the world. I absolutely do not believe in natural immunity. This was the view of decades ago. The response to the epidemic depends on vaccines.
Will the COVID-19 outbreak occur again? “A very important reason is human intervention. This time we can clearly see that our country’s social system has this ability. For example, Wuhan only took more than 70 days from the closure of the city to the unsealing, which is a good example. Therefore, human intervention , Especially the strong intervention of the government, determines whether the disease will continue to break out. “Zhong Nanshan said.
He said whether COVID-19 will appear in autumn and winter this year, no one dares to say. Sars appeared in 2003, and there were 4 more cases in the second year. At that time, it was still an animal for the time being. Later, it was found that the host was an animal civet, and the civet was disposed of. “Now the intermediate host of COVID-19 is unclear, but I do n’t believe that the current situation will appear early next year, because we have accumulated experience and prevention methods, as well as early diagnosis and early isolation experience. . Therefore, I think COVID-19 may also appear, but we will not be as embarrassed as this time. “