The largest province in China’s economy, its population is still expanding.
According to the latest “Guangdong Province Land and Space Planning (2020-2035)”, by 2035, the permanent population of Guangdong Province will reach 130 million.
In the next 15 years, Guangdong will add at least another 15 million people. At that time, Guangdong’s status as the most populous province in China will become more consolidated.
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Guangdong is the largest province in China’s economy and the largest province in population.
In 2019, the permanent population of Guangdong reached 115.2 million, far exceeding the traditional populous provinces-Shandong (100.7 million), Henan (96.4 million), Sichuan (83.75 million), and even surpassed the old Sichuan Province (now The total permanent population of Sichuan + Chongqing (114.9 million people).
The population of Guangdong is so large, on the one hand because of the continuous influx of foreign population, on the other hand, it has something to do with the high fertility rate and low aging rate.
Since the reform and opening up, a large number of talents have poured into Guangdong from all over the country, and the saying that “the east, the west, the north and the south, make a fortune in Guangdong” is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.
In the past five years, Guangdong has added nearly 8 million permanent residents, far ahead of the major provinces. In 2019 alone, the newly-increased permanent population was 1.75 million, which was more than one-third of the national newly-increased population.
Whether it is a natural increase in population or an influx of foreign population, Guangdong ranks first in the country, far ahead of other developed eastern provinces.
The natural increase in population proves that Guangdong has a high willingness to bear children.
Guangdong is also one of the provinces with a relatively young population structure. In 2019, only 9% of Guangdong’s population over the age of 65 was lower than the national average of 11.9%. At that time, Jiangsu and Shanghai both exceeded 14%. These two places have entered a deeply aging society.
Guangdong’s manufacturing industry is highly developed, and the high-tech industry is second to none. It not only attracts laborers from all over the country, but also attracts high-end talents from home and abroad.
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The attractiveness of Guangdong’s population is first-rate, but the population trends in different regions are very different.
According to the “Guangdong Province Land and Space Planning (2020-2035)”, in the next 15 years, the permanent population of the Pearl River Delta will increase from more than 63 million to 84.4 million, an increase of nearly 20 million; the east wing of the coastal economy With the west wing, a total of about 700,000 people will be added, and the northern ecological development zone will be reduced by more than 1.8 million people.
Calculated in this way, from 2019 to 2035, Guangdong’s new population may reach 18 million.
Therefore, the population of the Pearl River Delta region will continue to expand, while the population of the non-Pearl River Delta region will continue to decrease.
Guangdong’s Pearl River Delta region has first-class regional advantages. Most of the eastern and western parts of Guangdong are mountainous areas. The geographical environment of northern Guangdong is far inferior to eastern provinces such as Jiangsu and Shandong. The east, west, and north regions of Guangdong are not on the main transportation axis of the country, nor can they directly benefit from the vertical and horizontal connections of transportation infrastructure. They can only rely on Guangdong’s financial support for construction.
Although Guangdong is a strong economic province, it also shoulders a large number of financial transfer payments, and there are not many regions that can be retained for non-Pearl Rivers.
For so many years, Guangdong’s economic center of gravity and population center of gravity have been placed in the Pearl River Delta region. This is for a reason.
In recent years, Guangdong has planned a new pattern of regional development space of “one core, one belt and one district”, and different positions have been proposed for different regions.
One nuclear refers to 9 cities in the Pearl River Delta, which are the core areas and main engines that lead the development of the province. It is not only the focus of economic and industrial development, but also the focus of population agglomeration.
The belt refers to the coastal economic belt, which includes the eastern Guangdong area with Shantou as the sub-central city and the western Guangdong area with Zhanjiang as the sub-central city.
District One refers to the northern ecological development zone. Including the five cities of Shaoguan, Meizhou, Qingyuan, Heyuan, and Yunfu, the economic foundation is relatively weak and the population attractiveness is insufficient.
With different regional positioning and different development models, the flow of population is naturally very different, which is normal.
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The future population pattern of Guangdong will also be affected by the strategy of the metropolitan area.
The Guangdong Land Space 2035 plan points out that it will accelerate the construction of five modern metropolitan areas, including Guangzhou Metropolitan Circle, Shenzhen Metropolitan Circle, Pearl River Estuary West Coast Metropolitan Circle, Shanchaojie Metropolitan Circle, and Zhanmao Metropolitan Circle.
Distribution range of 5 metropolitan areas in Guangdong:
Guangzhou Metropolitan Area: Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhaoqing + Qingyuan, Shaoguan, Yunfu
Shenzhen Metropolitan Area: Shenzhen, Dongguan, Huizhou + Shanwei, Heyuan
Metropolitan area on the west bank of the Pearl River Estuary: Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Jiangmen + Yangjiang
Shantou Chaozhou Metropolitan Area: Shantou, Chaozhou, Jieyang
Zhanmao: Zhanjiang, Maoming
Shaoguan, Qingyuan, and Yunfu are all subordinate to the Guangzhou metropolitan area, and Heyuan is included in the Shenzhen metropolitan area.
Nowadays, the metropolitan planning of the two places are under preparation. In the future, the cities in the circle will be integrated from transportation to industrial division to public services.
The metropolitan area strategy has become one of the main strategies of the country’s regional development. The future population flow will no longer be the competition between cities, but also the competition between metropolitan areas and metropolitan areas, urban agglomerations and urban agglomerations.
Under the metropolitan model, working in Guangzhou and living in Foshan is not a problem. Working in Shenzhen and living in Huizhou, Dongguan will also be more common. The boundaries between cities will become increasingly blurred.
At that time, the Pearl River Delta region will focus on attracting the national population as the main development direction, while other cities in the metropolitan area can enjoy the overflow of population from central cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and the population pattern is expected to achieve a dynamic equilibrium.
Therefore, stop talking about the east, west and north of Guangdong. The true equilibrium is not the indifference under average, but the coordinated development of each individual’s strengths.
The gathering of population in the Pearl River Delta is the objective law of economic and industrial development. The “peacock flying southeast” of Guangdong’s population is also an inevitable result of economic and industrial development.
The advantages of population size and young population will be one of the greatest wealth of Guangdong’s economic development in the future.