In the foreign trade industry in 2020, there is a popular phrase: “masks in February, forehead guns in March, meltblown cloth in April, helmets in May, and bicycles in June.” The development of the industry is driven by the outbreak of demand. The scene has been staged repeatedly this year.
The relevant data of Alibaba International Station shows that the bicycle industry’s export explosion orders “returned” in the third quarter. A data from Tianyancha shows that in July, there were 18,538 newly registered bicycle manufacturers nationwide, and 15,540, 15,730 and 1,1024 were added from August to October. What is the reason behind this? Is it sustainable?
Orders in hand have been scheduled for next year
“The orders we currently have in hand have been queued to July 2021.” Luo Ju, business general manager of Shanghai Phoenix Import and Export Co., Ltd., told reporters. “Domestic orders are also increasing during the epidemic. Domestic orders surged in April. With the spread of the epidemic, overseas demand began to recover in June.”
Li Qing, chairman of Eluta Bicycle (Tianjin) Co., Ltd., which also focuses on the export of bicycles, told reporters, “Since this year, the number of bicycle orders has increased 10 times from June to September compared with last year. The transaction volume is more than 13 times that of the same period last year. The current order has been placed in April next year. The company dared not stop processing bicycles for a moment. Workers worked overtime until more than 10 o’clock every night and looked for other factories in the local area for processing.”
Among the top ten countries in terms of bicycle exports in the first half of the year, the growth rate of exports to the United States was better than expected. Vietnam and South Korea maintained strong growth. Among them, 6.116 million vehicles were exported to the United States, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year; 784,000 vehicles were exported to Vietnam, an increase of 72.6% year-on-year; and 734,000 vehicles were exported to South Korea, an increase of 37.4% year-on-year.
Bicycle exports continued to grow in the third quarter. According to data from Alibaba International Station, the bicycle industry’s actual GMV (total turnover) has increased by more than 100% for six consecutive months, and orders in October have increased by 220% year-on-year.
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, the export value of bicycles has increased month-on-month for five consecutive months from April to August. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, the reporter found that the amount of bicycle exports in the second and third quarters was US$807 million and US$1.1 billion respectively. This is the first single-quarter export value of the bicycle industry since 1995 to exceed the $1 billion mark, setting a record high in a single quarter in the past 25 years.
Growth or non-short-term trend
Industry insiders told reporters that the change in travel habits caused by the epidemic is one of the main reasons for the increase in demand for this round of bicycle exports, and the impact may last more than one year. After the last SARS epidemic in 2013, bicycle exports have also performed well in the next two to three years. This epidemic is expected to bring about a period of sustained growth.
“In the post-epidemic era, some businesses that speculate and add orders to produce bicycles will return to rationality, but we expect that after the vaccine is widely available, it will still take a long time for foreign countries to resume work and production, and the number of orders in the next year will not shrink. In addition, The bursting of orders may continue until 2022.” Luo Liu said.
At present, Italy, France, Germany and other countries have introduced travel subsidies or policies to encourage green travel. These countries themselves are big bicycle consumers. Therefore, the demand for bicycles is not only a short-term outbreak, but also a medium-to-long-term Consumer trends. In particular, electric bicycles with better riding experience have performed more prominently in recent years.
Not only that, after China successfully joins RCEP, it is also expected to be positive for bicycle exports. According to Statista statistics, the Asia-Pacific region is the world’s largest electric bicycle market, accounting for 94.39% of the global market share. Western Securities research report pointed out that RCEP is expected to further increase the demand for electric bicycles.
It is worth noting that in the next few years, domestic demand for bicycles, especially electric bicycles, will also rise steadily. After the implementation of the new national standard in 2019, electric two-wheelers have been re-compulsively classified. Vehicles with over-standard stocks in all regions need to be replaced with new national standard models. Therefore, the domestic electric bicycle market has benefited from the wave of new vehicle replacements. In addition, under the continuous popularization of shared electric bicycle application scenarios, leading shared travel companies are ready to launch a new round of market competition, which will also bring growth to the domestic electric bicycle market. The increase in instant delivery personnel catalyzed by the development of industries such as takeaway logistics and intra-city delivery will also become a new growth point in the demand for electric bicycles now and in the next few years.